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Kniha: Future Babble - Dan Gardner

Future Babble
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Kniha: Future Babble
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In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing ... (celý popis)
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Specifikace
Nakladatelství: Virgin Books
Médium / forma: Tištěná kniha
Rok vydání: 2011-05-05
Počet stran: 320
Rozměr: 22 cm
Úprava: xi, 305 stran
Vydání: First published
Vazba: Paperback
EAN: 9780753522363
Popis

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict the future confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly funny book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near. (why expert predictions fail and why we believe them anyway)

Předmětná hesla
Prognózování
Predikce
Vědecké omyly
Věda a společnost -- psychologické aspekty
Nejistota -- psychologické aspekty
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