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E-kniha: Alternative Oil Supply Infrastructures for the Czech Republic and Slovak Republic – Tomáš Vlček

Alternative Oil Supply Infrastructures for the Czech Republic and Slovak Republic

Elektronická kniha: Alternative Oil Supply Infrastructures for the Czech Republic and Slovak Republic
Autor: Tomáš Vlček

– Od roku 2007 se často opakuje informace o tom, že Rusko zvažuje uzavření ropovodu Družba. Česká a Slovenská republika to vnímají jako významnou hrozbu. Tato kniha hodnotí dostupné infrastrukturní alternativy a poskytuje jakési vodítko pro ... (celý popis)
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Od roku 2007 se často opakuje informace o tom, že Rusko zvažuje uzavření ropovodu Družba. Česká a Slovenská republika to vnímají jako významnou hrozbu. Tato kniha hodnotí dostupné infrastrukturní alternativy a poskytuje jakési vodítko pro budoucí řešení problému. Cílem je analyzovat možnosti ropovodní infrastruktury s ohledem na alternativy k primární zásobovací trase, a to pro Českou a Slovenskou republiku. Těchto možností je šest: ropovod Ingolstadt-Kralupy-Litvínov, ropovod Adria, potenciální ropovod Bratislava-Schwechat-Pipelie a ropovod Adria-Wien Pipeline, potenciální ropovod Oděsa-Brody-Adamowo-Płock-Gdaňsk, potenciální ropovod Spergau-Litvínov a vodní cesta Lobau-Bratislava. Výsledky výzkumu ukazují, že Česká a Slovenská republika mají společné zájmy v ropném sektoru, které mohou přetavit ve společný postup při jejich dosahování.

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ALTERNATIVE OIL SUPPLY

INFRASTRUCTURES

FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC

AND SLOVAK REPUBLIC

TOMÁŠ VLČEK

T

OMÁŠ

V

LČEK

Alternative Oil Supply Infrastructures for the Czech Republic and Slovak Republic

ISBN 978-80-210-8035-5

Neither the Czech Republic nor Slovakia has any signifi cant domestic resources of crude oil, leaving both countries at the mercy of foreign sources for the overwhelming majority of their oil. Since 1962, the majority of crude oil has been transported to the countries via the Druzhba Pipeline, the longest pipeline on Earth. To-date, the pipeline remains the primary route for supplying oil to both Slovak and Czech refi neries.

Since 2007, information has frequently surfaced that say Russia is con

sidering closure of the Druzhba, a signifi cant threat to the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Supplies on the Druzhba Pipeline are most susceptible to interruption on the south branch, negatively impacting the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

This book was written to assess the available infrastructural alternatives

and to provide guidelines for resolving future issues. It involves a somewhat ambitious eff ort to create a presentation and a set of recommendations that will attract and infl uence not just analysts and experts, but also those active in the Czech and Slovak oil markets. The aim is to analyse the potential of pipeline infrastructure, taking into account six alternative supply routes for the Czech and Slovak Republics. These are the Ingolstadt-Kralupy-Litvínov Pipeline, the Adria Pipeline, the potential BratislavaSchwechat Pipeline, the Adria-Wien Pipeline, the potential Odesa-BrodyAdamowo-Płock-Gdansk Pipeline, the potential Spergau-Litvínov Pipeline and the Lobau-Bratislava waterway.

The study results show that the Czech and Slovak Republics share in

terests in the oil sector that can be recast into joint action for their attainment. But the suboptimal result signifi cantly concerns Ukraine as a transit country for the Odessa-Brody Pipeline. And Ukraine is known for being an unreliable transit agent for hydrocarbons. The situation is also impacted by the current turmoil in Ukraine, which does little to promote collaboration and supply stability. Within the oil sector, both the counties should become diplomatically active to terminate the confl ict and settle the situation. That is the only way to reach the positives that follow from the development of the Odessa-Brody Pipeline.

International Institute of Political Science

of Masaryk University

Mezinárodní politologický

ústav Masarykovy

univerzity

Konrad

Adenauer

Stiftung

International Institute of Political Science

of Masaryk University

Mezinárodní politologický

ústav Masarykovy

univerzity



Masaryk University

FacUlty oF social stUdies

international institUte oF Political science

MonograPhs series

vol. 61



ALTERNATIVE OIL SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURES FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND SLOVAK REPUBLIC

MASARYK UNIVERSITY

FACULTY OF SOCIAL STUDIES

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

BRNO 2015 Tomáš Vlček

Cover photo: iStock, Getty Images

© 2015 Masarykova univerzita

© 2015 Tomáš Vlček

ISBN 978-80-210-8283-0 (online : pdf)

ISBN 978-80-210-8035-5 (brožovaná vazba)

The publication of the book has been financially supported

by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Czech Republic office

Scientific Board of Masaryk University:

prof. MUDr. Martin Bareš, Ph.D.

Mgr. Iva Zlatušková

Ing. Radmila Droběnová, Ph.D.

Mgr. Michaela Hanousková

doc. Mgr. Jana Horáková, Ph.D.

doc. PhDr. Mgr. Tomáš Janík, Ph.D.

doc. JUDr. Josef Kotásek, Ph.D.

Mgr. et Mgr. Oldřich Krpec, Ph.D.

prof. PhDr. Petr Macek, CSc.

doc. Ing. Petr Pirožek, Ph.D.

doc. RNDr. Lubomír Popelínský, Ph.D.

Mgr. David Povolný

Mgr. Kateřina Sedláčková, Ph.D.

prof. RNDr. David Trunec, CSc.

prof. MUDr. Anna Vašků, CSc.

doc. Mgr. Martin Zvonař, Ph.D.

PhDr. Alena Mizerová

Pre-publishing review: Doc. PhDr. Alexander Duleba, CSc.CONTENTS CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .........................................................7

LIST OF TABLES .........................................................................11

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................... 14

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ..................................................17

CHAPTER 2: SCIENTIFIC BASES .............................................27

2.1 Epistemological and Ontological Positions .......................27

2.2 Paradigmatic Anchoring .....................................................29

2.3 Theoretical Framework .......................................................31

2.4 Methodological Framework ...............................................39

2.5 Timeframe ..........................................................................44

2.6 The Subject of the Research and Its Objective ..................44

2.7 Operationalisation ..............................................................45

2.8 Case Selection ......................................................................51

2.9 Risks and Limitations .........................................................56

2.10 The Literature to Date ........................................................ 57

CHAPTER 3: BASELINE DATA AND DESCRIPTION

OF THE OIL SECTOR IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC ................. 61

3.1 Oil Infrastructure in the Czech Republic ........................... 61

3.1.1 Oil Pipeline Routes....................................................... 61

3.1.2 Sources, Deposits, Companies and Oil Trading ..........64

3.1.3 Extraction Companies, Oil Sources

and Deposits in the CR ................................................64

3.1.4 International Oil Transport .........................................67

3.1.5 Processing Plants .........................................................69

3.1.6 Distributor ....................................................................74

3.1.7 Oil Product Dealers ......................................................76

3.1.8 Oil Use and Consumption ............................................ 81

3.1.9 Oil Reserves ..................................................................84

ALTERNATIVE OIL SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURES FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND SLOVAK REPUBLIC6

3.1.10 Oil Demand Concept and Prognoses ...........................88

3.1.11 Baseline for the CR ....................................................... 91

CHAPTER 4: BASELINE DATA AND DESCRIPTION

OF THE OIL SECTOR IN THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC ...............94

4.1 Oil Infrastructure of the Country .......................................94

4.1.1 Oil Pipeline Routes.......................................................94

4.1.2 Sources, Deposits, Companies

and Oil Trading ............................................................96

4.1.3 Extraction Companies, Oil Sources

and Deposits in the SR .................................................96

4.1.4 International Oil Transporter .....................................98

4.1.5 Processing Plants .......................................................100

4.1.6 Distributor ...................................................................101

4.1.7 Oil Product Dealers .....................................................101

4.1.8 Oil Use and Consumption ..........................................103

4.1.9 Oil Reserves ................................................................106

4.1.10 Oil Demand Concept and Prognoses ......................... 107

4.1.11 Baseline for the SR ...................................................... 111

CHAPTER 5: SUPPLY ALTERNATIVES ..................................113

5.1 European Oil Pipeline Infrastructure ...............................113

5.2 The Ingolstadt-Kralupy-Litvínov Pipeline (IKL) ..............116

5.3 The Adria Pipeline .............................................................125

5.4 The Potential Bratislava-Schwechat Pipeline (BSP)

and Adria-Wien Pipeline (AWP) ...................................... 136

5.5 The Potential Odessa-Brody-damowo-Płock-Gdansk

Pipeline ............................................................................. 146

5.6 The Potential Spergau-Litvínov Pipeline ..........................161

5.7 Lobau-Bratislava Waterway ............................................. 170

CHAPTER 6: RESULTS ............................................................174

CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION .....................................................178

INDEX OF NAMES ...................................................................181

LIST OF SOURCES ...................................................................183


7LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS:

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS a. s. Akciová společnost (Joint-Stock Company) AG Aktiengesellschaft (Joint-Stock Company) AK Aкционерная компания (Joint-Stock Company) ASEK Aktualizace Státní energetické koncepce (Updated Czech

National Energy Concept) AUT Austria AWP Adria-Wien Pipeline B.V. Besloten vennootschap met beperkte aansprakelijkheid

(Limited liability company) BAP The potential Brody-Adamowo Pipeline bcm Billion cubic meters bcm/y Billion cubic meters per year BPS Baltic Pipeline System BPS-II Baltic Pipeline System II BSP The potential Bratislava-Schwechat Pipeline BY Belarus CTF Central Oil Tank Farm CZ Czech Republic CAPPO Česká asociace petrolejářského průmyslu a obchodu

(Czech Association of Petroleum Industry and Trade) CBU Český báňský úřad (Czech Mining Authority) CGS Česká geologická služba (Czech Geological Survey) CPU Česká plynárenská unie (Czech Gas Union) CPS Český plynárenský svaz (Czech Gas Association) CR Czech Republic CSFR Česká a Slovenská Federativní Republika (Czech and

Slovak Federative Republic) CSR Československá Republika (Czechoslovak Republic) CSSR Československá Socialistická Republika (Czechoslovak

Socialist Republic) D Germany DME Dimethylether DN Diameter nominalis (nominal diameter) VAT Value Added Tax

ALTERNATIVE OIL SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURES FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND SLOVAK REPUBLIC8

DWT Deadweight tonnage EAOTC Euro-Asian Oil Transportation Corridor EBRD The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EC European Commission EPH Energetický a průmyslový Holding, a. s. ERU Energetický regulační úřad (Energy Regulatory Office) ESPO East Siberia Pacific Ocean Pipeline ETBE Ethyl tertiary butyl ether EU European Union FAME Fatty acid methyl esters GmbH Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung (Limited Liability

Company) GR Greece GDP Gross Domestic Product HR Croatia HU Hungary CHVO Chráněná vodohospodářská oblast (Protected Water Area) I Italy IAEA International Agency for Atomic Energy IEA International Energy Agency IKL Ingolstadt – Kralupy – Litvínov Pipeline IR International Relations JANAF Jadranski Naftovod JSC Joint-Stock Company k.p. Group LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas LT Lithuania LFO Light Fuel Oil LV Latvia MEŘO Metylesther řepkového oleje (Metylesther of Rapeseed Oil) MK Macedonia MND Moravské naftové doly (Czech company producing gas

and oil) MOL Magyar Olaj – és Gázipari Részvénytársaság (Hungarian

oil and gas group) MPO Ministerstvo průmyslu a obchodu (Ministry of Industry

and Trade of the Czech Republic) MTBE Methyl tertiary butyl ether IR International RelationsLIST OF ABBREVIATIONS: MZV Ministerstvo zahraničních věcí (Ministry of Foreign

Affairs of the Czech Republic) MZP Ministerstvo životního prostředí (Ministry of the

Environment of the Czech Republic) n.p. Národní podnik (National Enterprise) NEK Nezávislá Odborná Komise (Independent Expert

Committee) OAO Открытое Aкционерное Oбщество (Joint-Stock

Company) OBP Oděsa-Brody-Pipeline ODS Občanská demokratická strana (Civic Democratic Party) OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and

Development OOO Общество с ограниченной ответственностью (Limited

Liability Company) OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PAT Публічне акціонерне товариство (Public Joint-Stock

Company) PCR Parlament České Republiky (Parliament of the Czech

Republic) PGNiG Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (Polish Oil and

Gas Mines) PGP Płock-Gdansk Pipeline PKN Polski Koncern Naftowy (Polish Oil Company) PL Poland plc Public Limited Company PVC Polyvinylchloride RAMO Rafinérie minerálních olejů (Mineral Oil Refinery) REB Russian Export Blend (intermediate fuel oils imported

from the Russian Federation) RPA Rafinérie, Petrochemie, Agrochemie (Refineries,

Petrochemicals, Agrochemicals) Rt Részvénytársaság (Joint-Stock Company) RU Russian Federation RUP Pеспубликанское унитарное предприятие (Exclusively

State-Owned Company) S.A. Société Anonyme (Joint-Stock Company) s. p. Státní podnik (State-Owned Company) s. r. o.; Spol. s r.o.; Společnost s ručením omezeným (Limited

Liability Company)

ALTERNATIVE OIL SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURES FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND SLOVAK REPUBLIC10

SA Spółka Akcyjna (Joint-Stock Company) SAPPO Slovenská asociácia petrolejárskeho priemyslu a obchodu

(Slovak Association of Petroleum Industry and Trade) SBS Státní báňská správa (The State Mining Administration of

the Czech Republic) SEI Státní energetická inspekce (State Energy Inspection of

the Czech Republic) SEK Státní energetická koncepce (Czech National Energy

Concept) SEP Státní energetická politika (Czech National Energy Policy) SK Slovak Republic SLP The potential Spergau-Litvínov Pipeline SNZ Slovenské naftové závody (Slovak Oil Enterprise) SR Slovak Republic SRB Serbia SSHR Správa státních hmotných rezerv ČR (Administration of

State Material Reserves – Czech Republic) SSHR Správa štátných hmotných rezerv SR (State Material

Reserves of Slovak Republic) SSP Schwedt-Spergau Pipeline USSR The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics SWOT Analysis of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunites and

Threats) SZ Strana zelených (Green Party) TAL Transalpine Ölleitung (Transalpine Pipeline) LFO Light Fuel Oil ELFO Extra Light Fuel Oil TPES Total primary energy supply UA Ukraine US DoD United States Department of Defense USA United States of America USD American Dollar ZAT Закрите акціонерне товариство (Closed Joint-Stock

Company) ZSDNP Employers‘ Association of Mining and Oil Industry

Fellowship of Miners of the Czech RepublicLIST OF TABLES LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1: Oil and Natural Gas Suppliers

for the European Union ................................................19

Table 1.2: Interruption in Supplies of Oil in the CR ................... 22

Table 2.1: The Three Main Paradigms of International

Relations ......................................................................29

Table 2.2: Strategic (Realism) and Market (Liberalism)

Approaches — Division Lines ......................................38

Table 2.3: Dependent Variable Value Scale .................................48

Table 2.4: Dependent Variables ...................................................48

Table 2.5: Value scale of the probability index

of dependent variables ................................................50

Table 2.6: Output Scale .................................................................51

Table 3.1: Oil Pipelines to the Czech Republic ............................62

Table 3.2: Utilisation of Druzhba and IKL ...................................63

Table 3.3: Oil Deposits, Reserves and Excavation in the CR ....... 65

Table 3.4: Oil Pipeline Network of the Czech Republic ...............68

Table 3.5: Estimated MERO ČR, a. s., Transport Rates ...............68

Table 3.6: Product Pipeline Chain of the Czech Republic ............75

Table 3.7: Amount of Fuel Handled by the ČEPRO, a. s. System. . .76 Table 3.8: Wholesale of Fuel by ČEPRO, a. s. ...............................76

Table 3.9: Ownership Structure of the Most Significant

Entities in the Czech Oil Sector as of 31/1/2014 .........80

Table 3.10: Oil Consumption in the CR by Sectors ........................82

Table 3.11: Refinery Oil Processing in the CR ...............................83

Table 3.12: Reserves of Oil and Oil Products Held by ASMR

as of 31 December 2012 ...............................................86

Table 3.13: Shares in the Mix of Primary Energy Resources

based upon the 2004 Czech National Energy

Concept and its amendment from February 2013

(data in %)....................................................................89

Table 3.14: Predicted Oil Consumption in the CR .........................89

Table 3.15: Baseline for the CR in 2012 .........................................93

Table 4.1: Oil Pipelines to Slovakia .............................................. 95

Table 4.2: Utilisation of Druzhba Pipeline .................................. 95

ALTERNATIVE OIL SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURES FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND SLOVAK REPUBLIC12

Table 4.3: Oil Deposits, Reserves and Extraction in the SR .........97

Table 4.4: Oil Pipeline Network in the Slovak Republic ..............99

Table 4.5: Estimate of Transpetrol, a. s. Transport Tariff Rates ...99 Table 4.6: Ownership Structure of the Most Significant

Entities in the Slovak Oil Sector as of 1/1/2014 .........102

Table 4.7: Oil Consumption in the SR by Sectors ......................104

Table 4.8: Refinery Oil Processing in the SR ..............................105

Table 4.9: Capacity of Oil and Oil Product Tanks under

State Material Reserves of Slovak Republic ...............107

Table 4.10: Orientation Shares in the Mix of the Primary

Energy Sources according to SR 2006 State Energy

Policy and SR 2013 Draft State Energy Policy ........... 108

Table 4.11: Predicted Oil Consumption in the SR ....................... 109

Table 4.12: Prognosis of Motor Fuel Consumption

Development in Slovakia ............................................110

Table 4.13: Baseline for the SR in 2012 ........................................112

Table 5.1: Simplified Map of the European Oil Pipeline

Network ......................................................................113

Table 5.2: Basic Information on Selected European Oil

Pipelines ......................................................................114

Table 5.3: Central European Oil Sector ......................................116

Table 5.4: TAL Pipeline ............................................................... 117

Table 5.5: Medium-Term Horizon for the CR

and Dependant Variable A (IKL Pipeline) .................125

Table 5.6: Medium-Term Horizon for the SR and

Dependant Variable A (IKL Pipeline) ........................125

Table 5.7: The Adria Pipeline ......................................................126

Table 5.8: Refineries on the JANAF and ADRIA Routes ............130

Table 5.9: Capacity of Individual Sections in Relation

to the Adria Pipeline ...................................................135

Table 5.10: The Medium-Term Horizon for the CR and

the Dependant Variable B (the ADRIA Pipeline) ......136 Table 5.11: The Medium-Term Horizon for the SR and

the Dependant Variable B (the ADRIA Pipeline) ......136 Table 5.12: Length Comparisson of Potential Routes

for the Planned BSP Pipeline .....................................139

Table 5.13: The AWP Pipeline .......................................................143

Table 5.14: The Medium-Term Horizon for the CR

and the Dependant Variable C (the BSP and

AWP Pipelines) ...........................................................146LIST OF TABLES Table 5.15: The Medium-Term Horizon for the SR

and the Dependant Variable C (the BSP

and AWP Pipelines) ....................................................146

Table 5.16: Potential Route from the Caspian Sea

to Central Europe .......................................................147

Table 5.17: Comparison of Total Transportation Costs for

Russian REBCO Oil Blend to Bratislava Refinery .....154 Table 5.18: Ukrainian Refineries...................................................157

Table 5.19: The Ukranian Oil Pipeline System .............................158

Table 5.20: Capacity of Individual Sections in Relation

to the Odessa-Brody Pipeline .....................................159

Table 5.21: Medium-Term Horizon for the CR

and Dependent Variable D (the potential

Odessa-Brody-Adamowo-Płock-Gdańsk Pipeline) .....161 Table 5.22: Medium-Term Horizon for the SR

and Dependant Variable D (the potential

Odessa-Brody-Adamowo-Płock-Gdańsk Pipeline) ....161 Table 5.23: The Planned Litvínov – Leuna Pipeline .....................163

Table 5.24: Capacity of Individual Sections in Relation

to the Litvínov-Spergau Pipeline ................................165

Table 5.25: The Medium-Term Horizon for the CR

and the Dependant Variable E (the potential

Spergau-Litvínov Pipeline).........................................169

Table 5.26: The Medium-Term Horizon for the SR

and the Dependant Variable E (the potential

Spergau-Litvínov Pipeline).........................................169

Table 5.27: Middle Branch of the River Danube .......................... 171

Table 5.28: Medium Horizon for the CR and Dependant

Variable F (the Lobau-Bratislava Waterway) ............173

Table 5.29: Medium Horizon for the SR and Dependant

Variable F (the Lobau-Bratislava Waterway) ............173

Table 6.1: Summary of Outputs ..................................................175

Table 6.2: Probability Index Visualisation ..................................176

ALTERNATIVE OIL SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURES FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND SLOVAK REPUBLIC14

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Neither the Czech Republic nor Slovakia has any significant domestic resources of crude oil, leaving both countries at the mercy of foreign sources for the overwhelming majority of their oil. Since 1962, the majority of crude oil has been transported to the countries via the Druzhba Pipeline, the longest pipeline on Earth. To-date, the pipeline remains the primary route for supplying oil to both Slovak and Czech refineries.

Since 2007, information has frequently surfaced that say Russia is considering closure of the Druzhba, a significant threat to the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Supplies on the Druzhba Pipeline are most susceptible to interruption on the south branch, negatively impacting the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

This book was written to assess the available infrastructural alternatives and to provide guidelines for resolving future issues. It involves a somewhat ambitious effort to create a presentation and a set of recommendations that will attract and influence not just analysts and experts, but also those active in the Czech and Slovak oil markets. The aim is to analyse the potential of pipeline infrastructure, taking into account alternative supply routes for the Czech and Slovak Republics. Because the countries are next-door neighbours, they are analysed side-by-side. Subsequently optimal and suboptimal variants of potential actions the two could take in common are discussed.

The initial focus of this book is on current baseline conditions in the oil sector in the Czech and Slovak Republics. In addition to providing baseline values that will be used further on in the text, a detailed description is offered of the oil sector EXECUTIVE SUMMARY in these countries. The comprehensive, quality dataset used to do so is one output. Readers will acquaint themselves not only with oil infrastructure, but also with the use of oil, the individual components of the oil sector, its outlook, etc. Thus a comprehensive set of data will be available that allows deductions to be made about the significance of oil for the country. Baseline conditions in the Czech Republic and Slovakia will be compared with six infrastructural alternatives in the experimental section. These are the Ingolstadt-Kralupy-Litvínov Pipeline, the Adria Pipeline, the potential Bratislava-Schwechat Pipeline, the Adria-Wien Pipeline, the potential Odesa-Brody-Adamowo-Płock-Gdansk Pipeline, the potential Spergau-Litvínov Pipeline and the Lobau-Bratislava waterway.

The basic hypothesis—that because of the existing oil pipeline network infrastructure, because of the countries’ varied geographical positions and given the various ways of implementing diversification, the Czech and Slovak Republics actually have little in common—was falsified.

The values for the optimum result for the Czech Republic are entirely comparable with the second result, the optimum result for the Slovak Republic. Although it is not the best variant for the CR, it has a decidedly positive effect on supply security, and collaboration between the countries on joint development of this suboptimal variant is both possible and desirable. Although the countries differ in terms of geographical position as well as interests and strategies for attaining fluent oil supplies, the potential Odessa-Brody-Adamowo-PłockGdańsk Pipeline, the section of Odessa-Brody-Druzhba that is already in place, has the potential to make a significant positive impact on oil supply security. It is the optimum alternative for the SR and the best suboptimal alternative for the CR to the primary supply route. Joint action by the Czech Republic and Slovakia to promote and develop this alternative is possible and suitable.

ALTERNATIVE OIL SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURES FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND SLOVAK REPUBLIC16

The study results show that the Czech and Slovak Republics share interests in the oil sector that can be recast into joint action for their attainment. But the suboptimal result significantly concerns Ukraine as a transit country for the Odessa-Brody Pipeline. And Ukraine is known for being an unreliable transit agent for hydrocarbons. The situation is also impacted by the current turmoil in Ukraine, which does little to promote collaboration and supply stability. Within the oil sector, both the counties should become diplomatically active to terminate the conflict and settle the situation. That is the only way to reach the positives that follow from the development of the Odessa-Brody Pipeline.

Within the oil sector, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are significantly interconnected, and changes that take place in one country influence developments in the other. This study has shown that when it comes to crude oil, both countries can function as partners and take joint steps to attain their own unilateral interests in line with their energy concepts. But in terms of oil refining and the oil trade, the countries are fierce competitors and this dichotomy may significantly influence their common diplomacy. The interests of refineries and traders in Central Europe and the relationships between them would be a suitable topic for follow-up studies.CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

“Oil is money; natural gas is politics.” This truism about hydrocarbon energy has been repeated ever since the field first drew attention from those outside it—from the public, but particularly from figures in political and international relations circles. Since the time of Winston Churchill, who before World War I chose to wager on oil over coal to fuel the British Navy, the importance of energy for both domestic and foreign policy has surged. But a full appreciation came only with the oil shocks of the 1970s. Now, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, after the structural changes engendered in the international system and parallel changes to policy themes, energy stands at the forefront of domestic and foreign policy.

Whoever first uttered the quotation above is lost to history, but one thing is certain: the words are still relevant. Even after 150 years of extraction and use—the first drill hole in the United States was sunk in 1859—oil remains sovereign among raw materials used for energy. This is so for many reasons. Among them is its relative simplicity of extraction, its great ease of transport, the extent to which industry relies upon it, and the fact that given this massive use, it has few substitutes.

Comparing oil to that other prominent hydrocarbon, natural gas, immediately shows off its advantages. First of all, the global oil market is highly liquid, greatly reducing the negatives associated with oil dependence. Its ease of transport by means of oceangoing tankers, pipelines, and railroads, and tanker trucks is another plus. Because it is a liquid, oil is easy

ALTERNATIVE OIL SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURES FOR THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND SLOVAK REPUBLIC18

to handle; its utilization hardly impacts on critical aspects of day-to-day survival. Any interruption to natural gas supplies will immediately lead to a loss of heating in homes, businesses and elsewhere, not to mention the impact on electricity production, a critical problem during the consumption-hungry winter months. Interruptions to the oil supply, by contrast, will cause outages in the production of fuels and petrochemical products, but these products may be purchased elsewhere, largely limiting the impact to the ‘mere’ collapse of the Czech refineries and to an extent, of the industrial sector.

There is no question that politics has deeply infiltrated the oil sector, but not in as flagrantly obvious manner as in other energy sectors. Its presence is not a given in the oil sector. Where politics does play a key role is in regions where oil pipeline infrastructure has not yet been sufficiently developed and for which there is but a single route or supplier. In those regions where the infrastructure does exist, the oil supply is governed almost exclusively by market relationships. Any disruption to supply for political reasons does significant damage to the supplier—because of the high liquidity of the global oil market, there is always an alternative source available. This is particularly true for the European Union because of the wide range of suppliers it has at hand (see Table 1.1).

The Russian Federation, by far the largest oil supplier to the European Union, has a problem, according to informed sources, in keeping its oil production growing at the same rate as world demand, particularly from Asia. It has diversified its consumer base by using new routes, including the ESPO (Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean Pipeline) route, which terminates at the eastern Siberian port of Kosmino, BPS (Baltic Pipeline System) terminating at Primorsk—a Russian port in the Gulf of Finland on the Baltic Sea–and BPS-II (Baltic Pipeline System II), which leads to Ust-Luga in the Gulf of Finland. But it has become clear that the Russian Federation



       
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